DemocraticIncumbent
Utah › Utah House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Utah House District 30
Fitisemanu is very likely to win: Fitisemanu wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Fitisemanu (D)
99%
chance of winning
Parke (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+18.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fitisemanu is clearly favored to win: Fitisemanu wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Fitisemanu (D)
93%
chance of winning
Parke (R)
7%
- Average margin
- D+15.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Dave Parke
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Utah state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.14 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.72 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.72 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 46,839
- People per km²
- 2,776
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 16%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 45%
- Hispanic 40%
- Black 2%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 10%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
14,033 votes · D+5.1✓ Jake Fitisemanu (D)52.5%
Fred C Cox (R)47.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
13,981 two-party votes · D+3.1 · D+4.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.5%
Donald Trump (R)48.5%
2022
10,276 votes · R+3.8✓ Judy Weeks-Rohner (R)48.7%
Fatima Dirie (D)45.1%
Evan Rodgers (OTH)6.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
13,054 votes · R+16.6✓ Mike Winder (R)58.3%
Robert S Burch Jr (D)41.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
15,710 two-party votes · D+6.4 · D+1.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.2%
Donald Trump (R)46.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
9,804 two-party votes · D+8.2 · D+5.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.1%
Donald Trump (R)45.9%
Neighboring districts
HD-25Angela RomeroRichard T Nowak>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-26Michael E FinchMatt MacphersonD flipD flip80%Dem.81%Dem. HD-27Liz OatesAnthony LoubetD flipD flip67%Dem.73%Dem. HD-31Verona MaugaMelody Jones>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-36Blake TownsendJim DunniganFlip riskD flip58%Dem.84%Dem. HD-37Ashlee MatthewsCasey Saxton98%Dem.91%Dem.