Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Oregon › Oregon House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Oregon House District 24

Fusion

Lucetta A Elmer has no major-party opponent.

Lucetta A Elmer has no major-party opponent.

How this race is decided

Cross-party nominations

A candidate can be nominated by several parties, such as Working Families or the Independent Party, and the ballot lists all of them next to one name. The forecast counts the candidate's votes once, under their main party.

Two-thirds quorum

Each chamber needs two-thirds of its members present to do business, so a minority holding more than a third of seats can block votes by walking out. Members with ten unexcused absences in a session cannot run for re-election (Measure 113).

The candidates

The district

Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+7.5R+9.7 vs. nation2020 presidentR+2.6R+7.1 vs. nation2024 presidentR+8.0R+6.5 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
60,135
People per km²
33
Adults with a B.A.+
26%
White, no degree
56%of adults
  • White 73%
  • Hispanic 17%
  • Black 1%
  • Asian 2%
  • Other / multiracial 8%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

34,886 votes · R+19.4
✓ Lucetta A Elmer (R)59.6%
Lisa Pool (D)40.2%

2024 President Vote in this district

35,518 two-party votes · R+8.0 · R+6.5 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)54.0%
Kamala Harris (D)46.0%

2022

30,289 votes · R+12.6
✓ Lucetta A Elmer (R)56.2%
Victoria Ernst (D)43.6%

2020 Earlier district lines

37,174 votes · R+15.5
✓ Ron Noble (R)57.6%
Lynnette Shaw (D)42.2%

2020 President Vote in this district

57,956 two-party votes · R+2.6 · R+7.1 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)51.3%
Joe Biden (D)48.7%

2016 President Vote in this district

32,090 two-party votes · R+7.5 · R+9.7 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)53.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.3%