Cross-party nominations
A candidate can be nominated by several parties, such as Working Families or the Independent Party, and the ballot lists all of them next to one name. The forecast counts the candidate's votes once, under their main party.
Oregon › Oregon House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Oregon House District 46
FusionChotzen is very likely to win: Chotzen wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Chotzen (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Morley (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+63.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+55 to D+74
- Partisan lean
- D+67
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Chotzen is very likely to win: Chotzen wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Chotzen (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Morley (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+68.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+56 to D+81
- Partisan lean
- D+67
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Two-thirds quorum
Each chamber needs two-thirds of its members present to do business, so a minority holding more than a third of seats can block votes by walking out. Members with ten unexcused absences in a session cannot run for re-election (Measure 113).
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Willy Chotzen
Republican
Leo Morley
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Oregon state offices
- −2.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+6.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.88 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.88 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+67: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 69,876
- People per km²
- 2,771
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 64%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 4%
- Asian 13%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
32,306 votes · D+70.5✓ Willy Chotzen (D)79.1%
John Mark Alexander (R)13.7%
Kevin Levy (I)3.9%
Austin Daniel (L)3.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
32,866 two-party votes · D+67.2 · D+68.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)83.6%
Donald Trump (R)16.4%
2022
28,991 votes · D+67.8✓ Khanh Pham (D)83.8%
Timothy R Sytsma (R)16.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
30,886 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Khanh Pham (D)97.6%
Writein (—)2.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
42,231 two-party votes · D+67.2 · D+62.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)83.6%
Donald Trump (R)16.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
32,795 two-party votes · D+66.9 · D+64.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)83.4%
Donald Trump (R)16.6%