Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Oregon › Oregon House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Oregon House District 16

Fusion

Sarah Finger McDonald has no major-party opponent.

Sarah Finger McDonald has no major-party opponent.

How this race is decided

Cross-party nominations

A candidate can be nominated by several parties, such as Working Families or the Independent Party, and the ballot lists all of them next to one name. The forecast counts the candidate's votes once, under their main party.

Two-thirds quorum

Each chamber needs two-thirds of its members present to do business, so a minority holding more than a third of seats can block votes by walking out. Members with ten unexcused absences in a session cannot run for re-election (Measure 113).

The candidates

The district

Lean D+57: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+52.1D+49.8 vs. nation2020 presidentD+56.3D+51.8 vs. nation2024 presidentD+56.8D+58.3 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
75,738
People per km²
257
Adults with a B.A.+
60%
White, no degree
31%of adults
  • White 75%
  • Hispanic 9%
  • Black 1%
  • Asian 8%
  • Other / multiracial 7%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

30,063 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Sarah Finger McDonald (D)82.8%
Michael A. Beilstein (OTH)15.9%
Write-ins (—)1.3%

2024 President Vote in this district

32,806 two-party votes · D+56.8 · D+58.3 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)78.4%
Donald Trump (R)21.6%

2022

29,910 votes · D+50.7
✓ Dan Rayfield (D)75.2%
Keith Lembke (R)24.6%

2020 Earlier district lines

35,054 votes · D+52.7
✓ Dan Rayfield (D)72.9%
Jason Hughes (R)22.6%
Shelly Davis (R)4.2%

2020 President Vote in this district

44,569 two-party votes · D+56.3 · D+51.8 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)78.2%
Donald Trump (R)21.8%

2016 President Vote in this district

30,482 two-party votes · D+52.1 · D+49.8 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)76.0%
Donald Trump (R)24.0%