Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina State Senate District 10
Sawrey is very likely to win: Sawrey wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
LeGrand (D)
1%
chance of winning
Sawrey (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+17.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Sawrey is very likely to win: Sawrey wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
LeGrand (D)
4%
chance of winning
Sawrey (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+17.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.72 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.37 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.37 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 234,263
- People per km²
- 114
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 17%
- Black 17%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
120,470 votes · R+21.9✓ Benton Sawrey (R)58.7%
Felicia C. Baxter (D)37.6%
Christopher Sessions (L)3.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
122,973 two-party votes · R+21.8 · R+20.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.9%
Kamala Harris (D)39.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
75,248 votes · R+27.8✓ Benton Sawrey (R)63.9%
Gettys Cohen Jr (D)36.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
174,677 votes · R+30.1✓ Brent Jackson (R)65.0%
Vernon R Moore (D)35.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
139,336 two-party votes · R+25.5 · R+30.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.7%
Joe Biden (D)37.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
87,142 two-party votes · R+31.3 · R+33.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.3%
Also on the ballot in North Carolina
Neighboring districts
SD-4Jessica RiveraBuck Newton75%Rep.62%Rep. SD-9Helen BronsonBrent Jackson99%Rep.98%Rep. SD-11James GailliardLisa Stone BarnesD flipD flip68%Dem.65%Dem. SD-12Tanya White AndersonJim Burgin98%Rep.96%Rep. SD-13Lisa GrafsteinRobert van Brederode98%Dem.88%Dem. SD-14Dan BlueAngela McCarty>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-18Haseeb FatmiChris Stock91%Dem.74%Dem.