Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Montana › Montana State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana State Senate District 18
Kmetz is very likely to win: Kmetz wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Taylor (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Kmetz (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+47.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+57 to R+38
- Partisan lean
- R+57
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Kmetz is very likely to win: Kmetz wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Taylor (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Kmetz (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+54.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+67 to R+42
- Partisan lean
- R+57
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Stan Taylor
Nominee for the 36th state representative district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
Republican
Greg Kmetz
State representative (2023–present) from the 36th (2025–present) and 38th districts (2023–2025)
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.61 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+57: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 29,628
- People per km²
- 1
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 64%of adults
- White 81%
- Hispanic 5%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 14%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
10,981 two-party votes · R+57.5 · R+56.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)78.7%
Kamala Harris (D)21.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
10,996 votes · R+56.7✓ Steve Hinebauch (R)78.4%
Pat Mischel (D)21.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
11,576 two-party votes · R+55.2 · R+59.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)77.6%
Joe Biden (D)22.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
8,531 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Steve Hinebauch (R)100.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
11,595 two-party votes · R+61.4 · R+63.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)80.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)19.3%
2012 Earlier district lines
9,048 votes · R+21.0✓ John Brenden (R)60.5%
Julie E French (D)39.5%