Staggered Senate
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Montana › Montana State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana State Senate District 49
Curdy is very likely to win: Curdy wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Curdy (D)
99%
chance of winning
Tschida (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+21.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+13 to D+31
- Partisan lean
- D+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Curdy is very likely to win: Curdy wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Curdy (D)
98%
chance of winning
Tschida (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+20.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+34
- Partisan lean
- D+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Willis Curdy
Incumbent senator
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Brad Tschida
State representative from the 97th district (2015–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.65 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 15,126
- People per km²
- 258
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 4%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
12,504 two-party votes · D+17.8 · D+19.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)58.9%
Donald Trump (R)41.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
10,344 votes · D+8.9✓ Willis Curdy (D)54.4%
Brad Tschida (R)45.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
12,207 two-party votes · D+18.1 · D+13.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.1%
Donald Trump (R)40.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
10,815 votes · D+3.2✓ Diane Sands (D)51.6%
Chase Reynolds (R)48.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
8,795 two-party votes · D+8.7 · D+6.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.4%
Donald Trump (R)45.6%
2014 Earlier district lines
7,829 votes · D+0.4✓ Diane Sands (D)50.2%
Dick Haines (R)49.8%