Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Kentucky › Kentucky House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Kentucky House District 51

Michael "Sarge" Pollock has no major-party opponent.

Michael "Sarge" Pollock has no major-party opponent.

How this race is decided

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.

The candidates

The district

Lean R+50: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+44.0R+46.2 vs. nation2020 presidentR+46.3R+50.8 vs. nation2024 presidentR+51.7R+50.2 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
46,146
People per km²
29
Adults with a B.A.+
20%
White, no degree
71%of adults
  • White 87%
  • Hispanic 3%
  • Black 6%
  • Asian 1%
  • Other / multiracial 3%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

17,064 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Michael "sarge" Pollock (R)100.0%

2024 President Vote in this district

21,085 two-party votes · R+51.7 · R+50.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)75.9%
Kamala Harris (D)24.1%

2022

14,791 votes · R+43.7
✓ Michael Pollock (R)71.9%
Jennifer Wheeler (D)28.1%

2020 Earlier district lines

20,951 votes · R+57.1
✓ John Carney (R)78.6%
Richard Steele (D)21.4%

2020 President Vote in this district

21,174 two-party votes · R+46.3 · R+50.8 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)73.2%
Joe Biden (D)26.8%

2016 President Vote in this district

18,674 two-party votes · R+44.0 · R+46.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)72.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)28.0%