Simple-majority veto override
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Kentucky › Kentucky House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kentucky House District 93
Camuel is very likely to win: Camuel wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Camuel (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rivera (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+33.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+44
- Partisan lean
- D+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Camuel is very likely to win: Camuel wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Camuel (D)
98%
chance of winning
Rivera (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+20.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+34
- Partisan lean
- D+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Adrielle Camuel
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Hannah Beth Rivera
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kentucky state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.73 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 40,182
- People per km²
- 1,398
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 64%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 18%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,264 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Adrielle Camuel (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
19,139 two-party votes · D+12.7 · D+14.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.3%
Donald Trump (R)43.7%
2022
14,300 votes · D+7.7✓ Lamin Swann (D)53.8%
Kyle Whalen (R)46.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
14,334 votes · R+26.2✓ Norma Kirk-McCormick (R)63.1%
Rod Varney (D)36.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
23,496 two-party votes · D+16.6 · D+12.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.3%
Donald Trump (R)41.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
18,120 two-party votes · D+5.2 · D+3.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.6%
Donald Trump (R)47.4%