Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Indiana › Indiana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana House District 15
Slager is clearly favored to win: Slager wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Oberman (D)
6%
chance of winning
Slager (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+11.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Slager is clearly favored to win: Slager wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Oberman (D)
10%
chance of winning
Slager (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+12.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Anthony Oberman
RepublicanIncumbent
Hal Slager
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Indiana state offices
- +1.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.71 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.92 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.92 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 71,796
- People per km²
- 611
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 4%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
37,161 votes · R+26.7✓ Hal Slager (R)63.3%
John "jack" Walter (D)36.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
37,883 two-party votes · R+20.5 · R+19.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.2%
Kamala Harris (D)39.8%
2022
25,759 votes · R+26.5✓ Hal Slager (R)63.2%
Chris Kukuch (D)36.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
34,564 votes · R+3.1✓ Hal Slager (R)51.5%
Chris Chyung (D)48.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
36,957 two-party votes · R+15.3 · R+19.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Joe Biden (D)42.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
29,603 two-party votes · R+16.9 · R+19.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.5%