Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Indiana › Indiana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana House District 83
Judy is very likely to win: Judy wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Haffenden (D)
3%
chance of winning
Judy (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+13.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Judy is clearly favored to win: Judy wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Haffenden (D)
6%
chance of winning
Judy (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+15.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Wesley Haffenden
RepublicanIncumbent
Christopher Judy
Incumbent state representative
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Indiana state offices
- +1.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.77 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.21 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.21 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 63,609
- People per km²
- 111
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 4%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
34,537 votes · R+28.0✓ Christopher N Judy (R)64.0%
Kyle Thele (D)36.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
35,128 two-party votes · R+22.4 · R+20.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.2%
Kamala Harris (D)38.8%
2022
17,676 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Christopher N Judy (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
38,314 votes · R+34.9✓ Christopher N Judy (R)64.7%
Michael Bienz (D)31.2%
Jason Eicholtz (—)4.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
43,592 two-party votes · R+22.0 · R+26.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.0%
Joe Biden (D)39.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
30,388 two-party votes · R+32.9 · R+35.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.6%