Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut State Senate District 36
FusionProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (98%).
Oberlander is very likely to win: Oberlander wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Oberlander (D)
98%
chance of winning
Kelly (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+19.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (99%).
Oberlander is very likely to win: Oberlander wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Oberlander (D)
99%
chance of winning
Kelly (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+28.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+15 to D+41
- Partisan lean
- D+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Jill Oberlander
Republican
Joseph Kelly
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.55 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -22.01 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 107,442
- People per km²
- 378
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 71%
- White, no degree
- 18%of adults
- White 70%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 4%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
56,627 votes · R+3.5✓ Ryan Fazio (R)51.7%
Nick Simmons (D)48.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
68,566 two-party votes · D+19.9 · D+21.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)59.9%
Donald Trump (R)40.1%
2022
42,845 votes · R+0.2✓ Ryan Fazio (R)50.1%
Trevor Crow (D)49.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
56,712 votes · D+2.8✓ Alex Kasser (D)51.4%
Ryan Fazio (R)48.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
59,772 two-party votes · D+24.9 · D+20.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)62.4%
Donald Trump (R)37.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
50,662 two-party votes · D+18.0 · D+15.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.0%
Donald Trump (R)41.0%