Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut State Senate District 19
FusionOsten is very likely to win: Osten wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Osten (D)
98%
chance of winning
Guidone (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+16.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Osten is clearly favored to win: Osten wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Osten (D)
91%
chance of winning
Guidone (R)
9%
- Average margin
- D+12.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Catherine Osten
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Jason Guidone
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.68 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.84 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 8.84 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 99,436
- People per km²
- 144
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 71%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 6%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
47,262 votes · D+13.8✓ Catherine A Osten (D)56.9%
Jason Guidone (R)43.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
47,343 two-party votes · D+6.7 · D+8.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.3%
Donald Trump (R)46.7%
2022
35,128 votes · D+12.0✓ Catherine A Osten (D)56.0%
Pietro Camardella (R)44.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
48,420 votes · D+8.8✓ Catherine A Osten (D)53.4%
Steve Weir (R)44.8%
William H Russell (—)1.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
48,733 two-party votes · D+10.3 · D+5.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.1%
Donald Trump (R)44.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
41,346 two-party votes · D+1.5 · R+0.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.7%
Donald Trump (R)49.3%