Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut State Senate District 33
FusionNeedleman is very likely to win: Needleman wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Needleman (D)
98%
chance of winning
Ferraro (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+15.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Needleman is clearly favored to win: Needleman wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Needleman (D)
93%
chance of winning
Ferraro (R)
7%
- Average margin
- D+14.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Norman Needleman
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Charles Ferraro
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.55 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.03 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.03 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 98,400
- People per km²
- 110
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
61,252 votes · D+13.7✓ Norm Needleman (D)56.9%
Jeffery Duigou (R)43.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
61,820 two-party votes · D+9.5 · D+11.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.8%
Donald Trump (R)45.2%
2022
49,028 votes · D+9.4✓ Norm Needleman (D)54.7%
Brandon Goff (R)45.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
61,783 votes · D+8.0✓ Norm Needleman (D)54.0%
Brendan Saunders (R)46.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
56,750 two-party votes · D+12.4 · D+7.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.2%
Donald Trump (R)43.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
48,944 two-party votes · D+1.9 · R+0.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.0%
Donald Trump (R)49.0%