Top-four primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party; the four with the most votes advance to November.
Alaska › Alaska State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alaska State Senate District M
RCVTop fourTilton is very likely to win: Tilton wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Chesbro (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Tilton (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+36.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+46 to R+28
- Partisan lean
- R+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Tilton is very likely to win: Tilton wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Chesbro (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Tilton (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+39.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+52 to R+27
- Partisan lean
- R+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Ranked-choice voting
Voters rank the finalists. If nobody has a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.
Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Pat Chesbro
Republican
Zane Vrvilo
RepublicanIncumbent
Cathy Tilton
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Ryan Berry
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Alaska state offices
- +1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+11.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.65 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.78 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+46: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 40,745
- People per km²
- 49
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 55%of adults
- White 74%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 17%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
19,219 two-party votes · R+46.0 · R+44.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.0%
Kamala Harris (D)27.0%
2022
14,850 votes · R+51.9✓ Shelley Hughes (R)75.8%
Jim Cooper (D)24.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
18,017 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Joshua C Revak (R)57.8%
Andy Holleman (—)42.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
18,017 votes · Uncontested by the other partyJoshua C Revak (R)57.8%
Andy Holleman (—)42.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
16,552 two-party votes · R+47.6 · R+52.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.8%
Joe Biden (D)26.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,136 two-party votes · R+55.7 · R+58.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)77.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)22.1%