Top-four primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party; the four with the most votes advance to November.
Alaska › Alaska State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alaska State Senate District O
RCVTop fourRauscher is very likely to win: Rauscher wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bauer (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Rauscher (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+36.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+46 to R+27
- Partisan lean
- R+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Rauscher is very likely to win: Rauscher wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bauer (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Rauscher (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+38.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+52 to R+27
- Partisan lean
- R+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Ranked-choice voting
Voters rank the finalists. If nobody has a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.
Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Peter Bauer
RepublicanIncumbent
George Rauscher
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Ryan Sheldon
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Alaska state offices
- +1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+11.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.45 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -11.48 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+46: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 42,202
- People per km²
- 0
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 60%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 16%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
20,139 two-party votes · R+46.3 · R+44.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.1%
Kamala Harris (D)26.9%
2022
14,277 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Michael K Shower (R)51.8%
Doug A Massie (R)47.0%
Write-In (—)1.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
23,251 two-party votes · R+44.3 · R+48.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)72.2%
Joe Biden (D)27.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
14,393 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Peter A Micciche (R)66.8%
Writein (—)33.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
17,705 two-party votes · R+51.5 · R+53.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)75.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)24.3%
2014 Earlier district lines
14,747 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Peter A Micciche (R)76.7%
Eric D Treider (OTH)23.3%