Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms, with one two-year term after each redistricting, so about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Texas › Texas State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas State Senate District 3
Ashby is very likely to win: Ashby wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Tillman (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Ashby (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+46.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+57 to R+37
- Partisan lean
- R+52
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ashby is very likely to win: Ashby wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Tillman (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Ashby (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+46.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+60 to R+35
- Partisan lean
- R+52
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Bobby Tillman
Republican
Trent Ashby
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -4.72 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.62 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+52: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 984,328
- People per km²
- 25
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 18%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 15%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
388,907 two-party votes · R+53.0 · R+51.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.5%
Kamala Harris (D)23.5%
2022
275,478 votes · R+57.1✓ Robert Nichols (R)77.4%
Steve Russell (D)21.2%
Desarae Lindsey (L)1.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
425,151 two-party votes · R+47.9 · R+52.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)74.0%
Joe Biden (D)26.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
274,743 votes · R+58.5✓ Robert Nichols (R)78.3%
Shirley Layton (D)20.5%
Bruce Quarles (L)1.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
352,792 two-party votes · R+48.0 · R+50.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)74.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)26.0%
2014 Earlier district lines
154,674 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Robert Nichols (R)90.6%
J Tyler Lindsey (L)9.4%