DemocraticIncumbent
Rhode Island › Rhode Island State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Rhode Island State Senate District 38
Gu is very likely to win: Gu wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Gu (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Place (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+23.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+34
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Gu is very likely to win: Gu wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Gu (D)
98%
chance of winning
Place (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+20.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Westin J. Place
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Rhode Island state offices
- +3.9Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+13.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.69 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.59 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.59 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 28,230
- People per km²
- 84
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 45%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
16,028 votes · D+16.4✓ Victoria Gu (D)58.2%
Westin J Place (R)41.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
18,964 two-party votes · D+12.7 · D+14.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.3%
Donald Trump (R)43.7%
2022
12,820 votes · D+25.7✓ Victoria Gu (D)46.5%
Westin J Place (R)27.5%
Caswell Cooke Jr (I)26.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
12,840 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Dennis L Algiere (R)96.0%
Writein (—)4.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
16,556 two-party votes · D+15.3 · D+10.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.7%
Donald Trump (R)42.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,429 two-party votes · D+5.1 · D+2.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.5%
Donald Trump (R)47.5%