DemocraticIncumbent
Rhode Island › Rhode Island State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Rhode Island State Senate District 5
Bell is very likely to win: Bell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bell (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Connell (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+58.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+49 to D+69
- Partisan lean
- D+55
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bell is very likely to win: Bell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bell (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Connell (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+63.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+51 to D+77
- Partisan lean
- D+55
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Rhode Island state offices
- +3.9Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+13.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.46 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.56 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.56 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+55: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 40,272
- People per km²
- 6,820
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 22%of adults
- White 41%
- Hispanic 40%
- Black 10%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
10,042 votes · D+58.1✓ Samuel W Bell (D)79.0%
William D Connell Jr (R)21.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,200 two-party votes · D+53.2 · D+54.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)76.6%
Donald Trump (R)23.4%
2022
5,795 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Samuel W Bell (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
7,916 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Samuel W Bell (D)96.8%
Writein (—)3.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,853 two-party votes · D+60.6 · D+56.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)80.3%
Donald Trump (R)19.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
8,439 two-party votes · D+61.0 · D+58.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)80.5%
Donald Trump (R)19.5%