Democratic
Oklahoma › Oklahoma House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Oklahoma House District 99
Brown is very likely to win: Brown wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Brown (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Latham (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+68.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+59 to D+78
- Partisan lean
- D+63
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Brown is very likely to win: Brown wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Brown (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Latham (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+68.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+56 to D+82
- Partisan lean
- D+63
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Melvin Latham
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Oklahoma state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.5 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+63: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 42,075
- People per km²
- 805
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 19%of adults
- White 33%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 42%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 10%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2020 President Vote in this district
14,022 two-party votes · D+63.9 · D+59.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)81.9%
Donald Trump (R)18.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
11,521 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ George E Young (D)81.8%
Marina Mangiaracina (I)18.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
11,914 two-party votes · D+60.8 · D+58.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)80.4%
Donald Trump (R)19.6%
2014 Earlier district lines
6,951 votes · D+64.6✓ George E Young (D)82.3%
Willard Linzy (R)17.7%
2012 Earlier district lines
12,745 votes · D+67.0✓ Anastasia A Pittman (D)83.5%
Willard Linzy (R)16.5%
Also on the ballot in Oklahoma
Neighboring districts
HD-83Dalton GauEric RobertsFlip risk54%Dem.70%Rep. HD-85Chelsey BranhamJoe Fallin>99%Dem.88%Dem. HD-88Ellen Pogemiller—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-92Sam Wargin Grimaldo—D vs D>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-94Andy Fugate—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-95Tegan MaloneMax WolfleyD flipFlip risk67%Dem.57%Rep. HD-96Ashtyn SmithPreston Stinson96%Rep.97%Rep. HD-97Aletia Timmons—D vs D>99%Dem.>99%Dem.