Democratic
Oklahoma › Oklahoma House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Oklahoma House District 68
Lay is very likely to win: Lay wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
LaFleur (D)
1%
chance of winning
Lay (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+17.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lay is very likely to win: Lay wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
LaFleur (D)
1%
chance of winning
Lay (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+25.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+39 to R+14
- Partisan lean
- R+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mike Lay
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Oklahoma state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.05 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+31: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 40,146
- People per km²
- 409
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 40%of adults
- White 57%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 7%
- Asian 8%
- Other / multiracial 17%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
683 two-party votes · R+30.1 · R+28.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.1%
Kamala Harris (D)34.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
16,764 votes · R+33.5✓ Lonnie Sims (R)66.8%
Michael Ross (D)33.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
15,196 two-party votes · R+30.4 · R+35.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.2%
Joe Biden (D)34.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
12,350 votes · R+30.1✓ Lonnie Sims (R)57.4%
Michael Ross (D)30.8%
Heather Chenoweth (I)9.2%
J Lee Miller Jr (L)2.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,184 two-party votes · R+39.1 · R+41.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.5%