Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Ohio › Ohio State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio State Senate District 23
Sweeney is very likely to win: Sweeney wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Sweeney (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Dintaman (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+49.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+40 to D+59
- Partisan lean
- D+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Sweeney is very likely to win: Sweeney wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Sweeney (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Dintaman (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+49.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+37 to D+62
- Partisan lean
- D+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Bride Rose Sweeney
State representative from the 16th district (2023–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Robert Dintaman
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Ohio state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.42 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+42: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 370,344
- People per km²
- 164
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 55%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 27%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
152,192 two-party votes · D+41.6 · D+43.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)70.8%
Donald Trump (R)29.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
93,426 votes · D+38.6✓ Nickie J Antonio (D)69.3%
Landry M Simmons Jr (R)30.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
166,376 two-party votes · D+44.2 · D+39.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)72.1%
Donald Trump (R)27.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
106,875 votes · D+30.8✓ Nickie J Antonio (D)65.4%
Steve A Flores (R)34.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
157,924 two-party votes · D+47.8 · D+45.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)73.9%
Donald Trump (R)26.1%
2014 Earlier district lines
70,905 votes · D+24.7✓ Michael J Skindell (D)62.4%
Tom Haren (R)37.6%