Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina State Senate District 43
Overcash is very likely to win: Overcash wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Rutherford (D)
1%
chance of winning
Overcash (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+18.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Overcash is very likely to win: Overcash wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Rutherford (D)
4%
chance of winning
Overcash (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+17.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Brad Overcash
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -3.65 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.44 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.44 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 220,026
- People per km²
- 285
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 18%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
107,005 votes · R+23.6✓ Brad Overcash (R)61.8%
Corey Creech (D)38.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
109,032 two-party votes · R+22.3 · R+20.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.2%
Kamala Harris (D)38.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
48,218 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Brad Overcash (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
212,161 votes · R+30.9✓ Kathy Harrington (R)65.4%
William Young (D)34.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
120,390 two-party votes · R+26.8 · R+31.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.4%
Joe Biden (D)36.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
85,913 two-party votes · R+30.8 · R+33.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.6%