DemocraticIncumbent
Paul Mark
- Experience
- State legislature
Massachusetts › Massachusetts State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts State Senate: Berkshire-Hampden-Franklin-Hampshire District
Mark is very likely to win: Mark wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mark (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Greenspan (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+40.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+31 to D+50
- Partisan lean
- D+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Mark is very likely to win: Mark wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mark (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Greenspan (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+37.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+25 to D+50
- Partisan lean
- D+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Gabriel Greenspan
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Massachusetts state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.38 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 8.38 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 169,663
- People per km²
- 39
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
87,743 votes · D+41.9✓ Paul W Mark (D)70.9%
David A Rosa (R)29.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
91,509 two-party votes · D+34.3 · D+35.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)67.1%
Donald Trump (R)32.9%
2022
62,934 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Paul W Mark (D)76.3%
Brendan M Phair (I)23.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
94,366 two-party votes · D+41.5 · D+36.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)70.7%
Donald Trump (R)29.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
81,776 two-party votes · D+36.8 · D+34.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)68.4%
Donald Trump (R)31.6%