Two representatives per district
Each of the 35 legislative districts elects two House members, who run for separate seats (A and B). The forecast treats each seat as its own race.
Idaho › Idaho House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Idaho Legislative District 19
2 seatsChurch is very likely to win: Church wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Church (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hopkins (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+40.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+31 to D+50
- Partisan lean
- D+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Church is very likely to win: Church wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Church (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hopkins (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+38.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+26 to D+52
- Partisan lean
- D+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
2.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 2 seats
2.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Monica C. Church
DemocraticIncumbent
Chris Mathias
Republican
Bryan Hopkins
Republican
Stanley Roach
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Idaho state offices
- −0.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.55 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.29 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 52,591
- People per km²
- 211
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 62%
- White, no degree
- 32%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
54,519 votes · D+34.5✓ Chris Mathias (D)41.4%
✓ Monica C. Church (D)38.4%
Jim Feederle (R)20.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
32,151 two-party votes · D+33.4 · D+34.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)66.7%
Donald Trump (R)33.3%
2022
49,272 votes · D+36.8✓ Chris Mathias (D)34.3%
✓ Lauren Necochea (D)34.2%
Melissa J Christian (R)15.9%
James Faasau (R)15.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
61,924 votes · D+36.4✓ Lauren Necochea (D)34.5%
✓ Chris Mathias (D)33.8%
James F Jacobson (R)16.1%
Jim Feederle (R)15.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
31,792 two-party votes · D+38.8 · D+34.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)69.4%
Donald Trump (R)30.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
22,486 two-party votes · D+39.0 · D+36.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)69.5%
Donald Trump (R)30.5%