Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

California › California State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

California Assembly District 22

Top two

Juan Alanis has no major-party opponent.

Juan Alanis has no major-party opponent.

How this race is decided

Top-two primary

All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.

The candidates

The district

Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+6.6D+4.4 vs. nation2020 presidentD+4.8D+0.2 vs. nation2024 presidentR+7.7R+6.2 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
449,662
People per km²
136
Adults with a B.A.+
19%
White, no degree
31%of adults
  • White 34%
  • Hispanic 52%
  • Black 3%
  • Asian 6%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

154,252 votes · R+12.3
✓ Juan Alanis (R)56.1%
Jessica Self (D)43.9%

2024 President Vote in this district

155,158 two-party votes · R+7.7 · R+6.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)53.8%
Kamala Harris (D)46.2%

2022

103,864 votes · R+16.2
✓ Juan Alanis (R)58.1%
Jessica Self (D)41.9%

2020 Earlier district lines

241,950 votes · D+50.8
✓ Kevin Mullin (D)75.4%
Mark Gilham (R)24.6%

2020 President Vote in this district

172,054 two-party votes · D+4.8 · D+0.2 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)52.4%
Donald Trump (R)47.6%

2016 President Vote in this district

131,047 two-party votes · D+6.6 · D+4.4 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.3%
Donald Trump (R)46.7%