Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
California › California State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
California Assembly District 17
Top twoHaney is very likely to win: Haney wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Haney (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Noris-Barrera (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+68.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+59 to D+79
- Partisan lean
- D+72
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Haney is very likely to win: Haney wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Haney (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Noris-Barrera (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+75.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+62 to D+89
- Partisan lean
- D+72
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Matt Haney
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Manuel Noris-Barrera
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- California state offices
- −0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.3 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.24 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.24 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+72: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 490,432
- People per km²
- 2,534
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 57%
- White, no degree
- 9%of adults
- White 34%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 6%
- Asian 34%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
200,384 votes · D+69.2✓ Matt Haney (D)84.6%
Manuel Noris-Barrera (R)15.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
212,780 two-party votes · D+70.3 · D+71.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)85.2%
Donald Trump (R)14.8%
2022
147,361 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Matt Haney (D)69.1%
David Campos (D)30.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
214,565 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ David Chiu (D)88.9%
Starchild (—)11.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
240,330 two-party votes · D+76.9 · D+72.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)88.5%
Donald Trump (R)11.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
213,578 two-party votes · D+83.8 · D+81.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)91.9%
Donald Trump (R)8.1%