Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
California › California State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
California Assembly District 39
Top twoCarrillo is very likely to win: Carrillo wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Carrillo (D)
99%
chance of winning
Marsh (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+20.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+31
- Partisan lean
- D+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Carrillo is clearly favored to win: Carrillo wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Carrillo (D)
95%
chance of winning
Marsh (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+17.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+31
- Partisan lean
- D+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Juan Carrillo
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Paul Marsh
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- California state offices
- −0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.95 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.42 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 465,471
- People per km²
- 171
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 13%
- White, no degree
- 17%of adults
- White 16%
- Hispanic 63%
- Black 15%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
124,835 votes · D+15.5✓ Juan Carrillo Ventura (D)57.8%
Paul Andre Marsh (R)42.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
128,817 two-party votes · D+9.5 · D+11.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.8%
Donald Trump (R)45.2%
2022
65,822 votes · D+14.0✓ Juan Carrillo (D)57.0%
Paul Andre Marsh (R)43.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
158,240 votes · D+48.1✓ Luz Maria Rivas (D)74.1%
Ricardo Benitez (R)25.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
146,082 two-party votes · D+26.1 · D+21.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)63.0%
Donald Trump (R)37.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
108,758 two-party votes · D+27.7 · D+25.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)63.9%
Donald Trump (R)36.1%