Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Alabama › Alabama House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Alabama House District 82

Warren is very likely to win: Warren wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Warren (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hammons (R)
<1%
Average margin
D+38.1
80% of outcomes
D+28 to D+49
Partisan lean
D+32
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Warren is very likely to win: Warren wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Warren (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hammons (R)
<1%
Average margin
D+36.8
80% of outcomes
D+24 to D+50
Partisan lean
D+32
Polls
No pollsmodel only

How this race is decided

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto, so the majority party does not need a supermajority to pass bills over a veto.

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

D+38.1R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60
D+36.8R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Warren >99%Hammons <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Warren >99%Hammons <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Alabama state offices
−0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+9.4Used by the fundamentals
Swing reaching this office
58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
Southeast adjustment
−1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 58% of the environment andthe Southeast adjustmentD+34.1Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+38.2Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Alabama and look-alikeplacesD+38.1Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+38.1Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+36.8

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0.46
Elected-experience edge0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation13.63
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation13.63

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The district

Lean D+32: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+39.7D+37.5 vs. nation2020 presidentD+40.2D+35.6 vs. nation2024 presidentD+28.7D+30.2 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
34,505
People per km²
19
Adults with a B.A.+
32%
White, no degree
15%of adults
  • White 38%
  • Hispanic 4%
  • Black 51%
  • Asian 4%
  • Other / multiracial 3%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024 President Vote in this district

15,959 two-party votes · D+28.7 · D+30.2 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)64.4%
Donald Trump (R)35.6%

2022

8,805 votes · D+42.5
✓ Pebblin Walker Warren (D)71.1%
Lennora Pierrot (R)28.7%

2020 President Vote in this district

23,794 two-party votes · D+40.2 · D+35.6 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)70.1%
Donald Trump (R)29.9%

2018 Earlier district lines

11,693 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Pebblin Walker Warren (D)97.6%
Writein (—)2.4%

2016 President Vote in this district

15,880 two-party votes · D+39.7 · D+37.5 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)69.8%
Donald Trump (R)30.2%

2014 Earlier district lines

8,455 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Warren (D)100.0%