One-chamber legislature
Nebraska has a single legislative chamber of 49 members, called senators.
Nebraska › Nebraska Legislature · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nebraska Legislative District 22
Top twoNonpartisanForecast without candidates. Candidates not yet compiled: this forecast is for the seat's current party against a generic challenger.
The Republican is very likely to win: the Republican wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Democrat (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Republican (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+44.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+54 to R+35
- Partisan lean
- R+59
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
The Republican is very likely to win: the Republican wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Democrat (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Republican (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+52.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+65 to R+40
- Partisan lean
- R+59
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Nonpartisan ballot
Legislative candidates appear without party labels, and the top two from an open primary advance, so two members of the same party can meet in November. The forecast uses each candidate's registered party.
Filibuster
Ending a filibuster takes 33 of 49 votes, so a party usually needs 33 seats to pass contested bills; overriding a veto takes 30.
Staggered terms
Members serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Nonpartisan
Dawson Brunswick
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nebraska state offices
- +0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+59: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 34,716
- People per km²
- 16
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 58%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 24%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
17,376 two-party votes · R+59.6 · R+58.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)79.8%
Kamala Harris (D)20.2%
2022
11,916 votes✓ Mike Moser (—)80.2%
Roy M Zach (—)19.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
16,780 two-party votes · R+58.4 · R+62.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)79.2%
Joe Biden (D)20.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
12,279 votes✓ Mike Moser (—)64.3%
Doug Oertwich (—)35.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
14,701 two-party votes · R+61.6 · R+63.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)80.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)19.2%
2014 Earlier district lines
9,902 votes✓ Paul Schumacher (—)78.2%
Douglas J Liewer (—)21.8%