Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Missouri › Missouri State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri State Senate District 6
Vogel is very likely to win: Vogel wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Salcedo (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Vogel (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+37.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+47 to R+28
- Partisan lean
- R+49
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Vogel is very likely to win: Vogel wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Salcedo (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Vogel (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+43.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+56 to R+31
- Partisan lean
- R+49
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
J. Don Salcedo
Republican
Jake Vogel
Former U.S. Army ranger and son of former state senator Carl Vogel
- Experience
- No elected office
RepublicanCandidate
Amber Buckles
RepublicanCandidate
Isaac Skelton
Camden County commissioner
- Experience
- No elected office
RepublicanCandidate
Derrick Spicer
Sales director and former Jefferson City councilman (2021–2025)
- Experience
- Local office
RepublicanCandidate
Lisa Thomas
Former state representative
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.11 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.98 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+49: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 182,947
- People per km²
- 26
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 64%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 5%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
94,601 two-party votes · R+49.5 · R+48.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)74.7%
Kamala Harris (D)25.3%
2022
56,439 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mike Bernskoetter (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
92,364 two-party votes · R+48.7 · R+53.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)74.3%
Joe Biden (D)25.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
72,356 votes · R+49.7✓ Mike Bernskoetter (R)73.3%
Nicole Thompson (D)24.6%
Steven Wilson (L)2.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
83,802 two-party votes · R+51.1 · R+53.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)75.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)24.5%
2014 Earlier district lines
47,498 votes · R+58.2✓ Mike Kehoe (R)79.1%
Mollie Kristen Freebairn (D)20.9%