Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Missouri › Missouri State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri State Senate District 18
Sharpe is very likely to win: Sharpe wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Miller (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Sharpe (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+41.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+51 to R+32
- Partisan lean
- R+54
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Sharpe is very likely to win: Sharpe wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Miller (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Sharpe (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+48.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+61 to R+36
- Partisan lean
- R+54
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Nick Miller
Republican
Greg Sharpe
State representative of District 4
- Experience
- State legislature
RepublicanCandidate
Dustin Blue
Businessowner and Army veteran
- Experience
- No elected office
RepublicanCandidate
Ed Lewis
State representative
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.94 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+54: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 176,703
- People per km²
- 9
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 73%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
81,211 two-party votes · R+54.4 · R+52.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)77.2%
Kamala Harris (D)22.8%
2022
56,728 votes · R+51.6✓ Cindy Olaughlin (R)75.8%
Ayanna Shivers (D)24.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
82,069 two-party votes · R+51.9 · R+56.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.0%
Joe Biden (D)24.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
65,818 votes · R+40.6✓ Cindy Olaughlin (R)70.3%
Crystal Stephens (D)29.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
77,574 two-party votes · R+51.4 · R+53.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)75.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)24.3%
2014 Earlier district lines
39,460 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Brian Munzlinger (R)100.0%