Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Missouri › Missouri State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri State Senate District 28
Alexander is very likely to win: Alexander wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McCaffree (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Alexander (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+44.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+55 to R+36
- Partisan lean
- R+59
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Alexander is very likely to win: Alexander wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McCaffree (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Alexander (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+53.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+66 to R+41
- Partisan lean
- R+59
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Mike McCaffree
Real estate agent
- Experience
- No elected office
Republican
Sam Alexander
ER physician and candidate for MO-7 in 2022
- Experience
- No elected office
RepublicanCandidate
Chuck Lentz
Southwest Baptist University professor
- Experience
- No elected office
RepublicanCandidate
Brad Pollitt
State representative of District 52
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.21 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.27 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+59: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 188,345
- People per km²
- 13
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 18%
- White, no degree
- 76%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
90,162 two-party votes · R+58.8 · R+57.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)79.4%
Kamala Harris (D)20.6%
2022
55,062 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Sandy Crawford (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
96,231 two-party votes · R+57.8 · R+62.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)78.9%
Joe Biden (D)21.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
67,818 votes · R+58.3✓ Sandy Crawford (R)79.2%
Joe Poor (D)20.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
84,974 two-party votes · R+57.1 · R+59.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)78.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)21.5%
2014 Earlier district lines
34,573 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mike Parson (R)100.0%