Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Missouri › Missouri State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri State Senate District 16
Hardwick is very likely to win: Hardwick wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Staabs (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Hardwick (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+47.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+57 to R+38
- Partisan lean
- R+59
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hardwick is very likely to win: Hardwick wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Staabs (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Hardwick (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+53.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+67 to R+41
- Partisan lean
- R+59
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Virginia Staabs
Republican
Bill Hardwick
State representative of District 121
- Experience
- State legislature
RepublicanCandidate
Philip Lohmann
Returning candidate
- Experience
- No elected office
RepublicanCandidate
Hannah Kelly
Former state representative of District 141 (2017–2025)
- Experience
- State legislature
RepublicanCandidate
Jeff Knight
Representative of Missouri House District 142
- Experience
- No elected office
RepublicanCandidate
Don Mayhew
State representative of District 124
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.44 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.15 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+59: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 177,432
- People per km²
- 17
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 67%of adults
- White 83%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 4%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
71,975 two-party votes · R+59.1 · R+57.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)79.5%
Kamala Harris (D)20.5%
2022
48,450 votes · R+61.3✓ Justin Dan Brown (R)80.7%
Tara Anura (D)19.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
72,549 two-party votes · R+56.7 · R+61.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)78.4%
Joe Biden (D)21.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
60,479 votes · R+40.2✓ Justin Dan Brown (R)70.1%
Ryan Dillon (D)29.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
65,783 two-party votes · R+59.2 · R+61.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)79.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)20.4%
2014 Earlier district lines
31,829 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Dan Brown (R)100.0%