Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Indiana › Indiana State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana State Senate District 19
Fiechter is very likely to win: Fiechter wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Murphy (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Fiechter (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+28.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+38
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fiechter is very likely to win: Fiechter wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Murphy (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Fiechter (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+31.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+44 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+38
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Timothy Murphy
Republican
Blake Fiechter
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Indiana state offices
- +1.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.98 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -19.8 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+38: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 137,134
- People per km²
- 39
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 19%
- White, no degree
- 71%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
55,793 two-party votes · R+39.5 · R+38.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.7%
Kamala Harris (D)30.3%
2022
27,865 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Travis Holdman (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
68,726 two-party votes · R+31.5 · R+36.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.7%
Joe Biden (D)34.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
29,885 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Travis Holdman (R)100.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
53,052 two-party votes · R+41.9 · R+44.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)29.1%
2014 Earlier district lines
23,367 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Travis Holdman (R)100.0%