Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Indiana › Indiana State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana State Senate District 43
Maxwell is very likely to win: Maxwell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Holland (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Maxwell (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+40.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+50 to R+32
- Partisan lean
- R+53
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Maxwell is very likely to win: Maxwell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Holland (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Maxwell (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+46.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+59 to R+34
- Partisan lean
- R+53
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Byron Holland
RepublicanIncumbent
Randy Maxwell
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Indiana state offices
- +1.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.52 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.8 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+53: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 135,889
- People per km²
- 38
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 20%
- White, no degree
- 76%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
62,389 two-party votes · R+53.1 · R+51.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.6%
Kamala Harris (D)23.4%
2022
30,804 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Chip Perfect (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
69,468 two-party votes · R+50.5 · R+55.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)75.3%
Joe Biden (D)24.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
35,509 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Clyde A Perfect Jr (R)100.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
60,402 two-party votes · R+49.5 · R+51.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)74.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)25.3%
2014 Earlier district lines
31,725 votes · R+43.3✓ Clyde Allen Perfect Jr (R)71.7%
Rudy M Howard Sr (D)28.3%