Staggered Senate
Senators serve terms of two or four years in a set pattern each decade, so a different share of the seats is on the ballot each election: 39 of 59 in 2026.
Illinois › Illinois State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois Legislative District 42
Holmes is very likely to win: Holmes wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Holmes (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Perez (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+32.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+24 to D+43
- Partisan lean
- D+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Holmes is very likely to win: Holmes wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Holmes (D)
99%
chance of winning
Perez (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+29.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+17 to D+42
- Partisan lean
- D+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Jared Ploger
DemocraticIncumbent
Linda Holmes
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Edgardo "Eddie" Perez
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Illinois state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.55 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.54 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.54 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 198,091
- People per km²
- 857
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 47%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 54%
- Hispanic 21%
- Black 10%
- Asian 11%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
93,171 two-party votes · D+21.5 · D+23.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.7%
Donald Trump (R)39.3%
2022
67,872 votes · D+20.5✓ Linda Holmes (D)60.3%
Paul J Santucci (R)39.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
97,080 two-party votes · D+26.3 · D+21.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)63.2%
Donald Trump (R)36.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
41,787 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Linda Holmes (D)100.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
79,082 two-party votes · D+21.2 · D+18.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)60.6%
Donald Trump (R)39.4%
2014 Earlier district lines
28,358 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Linda Holmes (D)100.0%