Staggered Senate
Senators serve terms of two or four years in a set pattern each decade, so a different share of the seats is on the ballot each election: 39 of 59 in 2026.
Illinois › Illinois State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois Legislative District 9
Hanley is very likely to win: Hanley wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hanley (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Lally (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+56.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+47 to D+67
- Partisan lean
- D+54
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hanley is very likely to win: Hanley wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hanley (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Lally (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+59.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+47 to D+73
- Partisan lean
- D+54
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Patrick Hanley
President of the New Trier Democrats
- Experience
- No elected office
Republican
Tom Lally
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Illinois state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.1 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+54: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 202,432
- People per km²
- 1,984
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 70%
- White, no degree
- 15%of adults
- White 64%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 8%
- Asian 14%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
106,608 two-party votes · D+52.8 · D+54.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)76.4%
Donald Trump (R)23.6%
2022
81,246 votes · D+52.9✓ Laura Fine (D)76.4%
Paul T Kelly (R)23.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
116,570 two-party votes · D+55.6 · D+51.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)77.8%
Donald Trump (R)22.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
102,599 votes · D+43.7✓ Laura Fine (D)71.8%
Joan McCarthy Lasonde (R)28.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
101,314 two-party votes · D+57.6 · D+55.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)78.8%
Donald Trump (R)21.2%
2014 Earlier district lines
55,986 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Daniel Biss (D)100.0%