Democratic
Idaho › Idaho State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Idaho Legislative District 3
Okuniewicz is very likely to win: Okuniewicz wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Seguin (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Okuniewicz (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+45.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+55 to R+37
- Partisan lean
- R+59
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Okuniewicz is very likely to win: Okuniewicz wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Seguin (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Okuniewicz (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+54.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+67 to R+42
- Partisan lean
- R+59
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Doug "Doug O" Okuniewicz
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Idaho state offices
- −0.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.41 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.08 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.08 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+59: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 62,567
- People per km²
- 97
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 62%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 6%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
31,367 votes · R+61.1✓ Doug "Doug O" Okuniewicz (R)80.6%
Brian Seguin (D)19.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
31,981 two-party votes · R+60.5 · R+59.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)80.3%
Kamala Harris (D)19.7%
2022
34,730 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Doug Okuniewicz (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
24,141 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Peter Riggs (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
31,223 two-party votes · R+52.4 · R+57.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.2%
Joe Biden (D)23.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
21,066 two-party votes · R+54.8 · R+57.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)77.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)22.6%