Democratic
Delaware › Delaware House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Delaware House District 4
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (48% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Lindner (D)
48%
chance of winning
Zitofsky (R)
52%
- Average margin
- R+0.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Zitofsky is favored to win: Zitofsky wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Lindner (D)
40%
chance of winning
Zitofsky (R)
60%
- Average margin
- R+2.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Dan Zitofsky
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Delaware state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.44 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.13 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 24,942
- People per km²
- 185
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 60%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
18,163 votes · R+16.0✓ Jeff Hilovsky (R)58.0%
Gregg Lindner (D)42.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
18,388 two-party votes · R+6.8 · R+5.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.4%
Kamala Harris (D)46.6%
2022
11,625 votes · R+18.2✓ Jeff Hilovsky (R)57.3%
Keegan Worley (D)39.7%
Amy S Fresh (I)3.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
13,325 votes · D+40.0✓ Gerald L Brady (D)70.0%
Jordan Nally (R)30.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
14,111 two-party votes · R+8.8 · R+13.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.4%
Joe Biden (D)45.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
10,781 two-party votes · R+19.7 · R+21.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.2%