DemocraticIncumbent
Delaware › Delaware House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Delaware House District 20
Berry is very likely to win: Berry wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Berry (D)
98%
chance of winning
Dvornick (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+17.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Berry is clearly favored to win: Berry wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Berry (D)
89%
chance of winning
Dvornick (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+11.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Gene Dvornick
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Delaware state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.58 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 21,099
- People per km²
- 98
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 50%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 4%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2025 special
9,193 votes · D+1.3✓ Alonna Berry (D)50.6%
Nikki Miller (R)49.3%
2024
17,469 votes · D+1.4✓ Stell Parker Selby (D)50.7%
Nikki Miller (R)49.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
17,568 two-party votes · D+8.7 · D+10.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.3%
Donald Trump (R)45.7%
2022
12,899 votes · D+2.9✓ Stell Parker Selby (D)51.4%
Dallas A Wingate (R)48.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
14,195 two-party votes · D+5.8 · D+1.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.9%
Donald Trump (R)47.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
10,662 two-party votes · R+8.6 · R+10.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.7%