Democratic
Delaware › Delaware House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Delaware House District 3
Fletcher-Dominguez is very likely to win: Fletcher-Dominguez wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Fletcher-Dominguez (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Dottery (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+64.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+55 to D+75
- Partisan lean
- D+68
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fletcher-Dominguez is very likely to win: Fletcher-Dominguez wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Fletcher-Dominguez (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Dottery (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+72.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+59 to D+86
- Partisan lean
- D+68
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Delaware state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.82 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.93 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+68: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 26,797
- People per km²
- 6,523
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 21%of adults
- White 28%
- Hispanic 20%
- Black 46%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
6,307 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Josue O. Ortega (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
7,590 two-party votes · D+66.3 · D+67.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)83.2%
Donald Trump (R)16.8%
2022
3,226 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Sherry Dorsey Walker (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,772 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Sherry Dorsey Walker (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
8,404 two-party votes · D+71.0 · D+66.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)85.5%
Donald Trump (R)14.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
8,290 two-party votes · D+71.3 · D+69.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)85.6%
Donald Trump (R)14.4%