Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Colorado › Colorado State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado State Senate District 4
Collins is clearly favored to win: Collins wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Kurth (D)
8%
chance of winning
Collins (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+10.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Collins is clearly favored to win: Collins wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Kurth (D)
7%
chance of winning
Collins (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+14.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Justin Kurth
Republican
Teddy Collins
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Colorado state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.85 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.09 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 206,981
- People per km²
- 11
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 45%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
110,405 two-party votes · R+17.6 · R+16.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.8%
Kamala Harris (D)41.2%
2022
91,384 votes · R+21.7✓ Mark Baisley (R)60.8%
Jeff Ravage (D)39.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
118,566 votes · R+28.0✓ Jim Smallwood (R)62.3%
Elissa Flaumenhaft (D)35.0%
Wayne Harlos (—)2.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
115,254 two-party votes · R+18.5 · R+23.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.3%
Joe Biden (D)40.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
90,760 votes · R+38.8✓ Jim Smallwood (R)69.4%
Christina Maria Riegel (D)30.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
92,737 two-party votes · R+28.4 · R+30.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.8%
Also on the ballot in Colorado
Neighboring districts
SD-3Aaron GutierrezDana CharlesFlip risk81%Dem.60%Dem. SD-8Dylan RobertsCorey Marshall99%Dem.91%Dem. SD-9William Delano Moses IIITerri Carver95%Rep.88%Rep. SD-20Sheila LiederRichard Mancuso>99%Dem.98%Dem. SD-30Kevin LeungJohn CarsonD flipD flip74%Dem.76%Dem. SD-35Duane GuruleRod Pelton>99%Rep.>99%Rep.