Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Colorado › Colorado State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado State Senate District 27
Sullivan is very likely to win: Sullivan wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Sullivan (D)
99%
chance of winning
Lammon (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+21.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+12 to D+31
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Sullivan is very likely to win: Sullivan wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Sullivan (D)
96%
chance of winning
Lammon (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+17.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+31
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Tom Sullivan
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Danielle Lammon
Libertarian
Michele Poague
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Colorado state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.41 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.41 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 166,986
- People per km²
- 369
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 55%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 8%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
90,924 two-party votes · D+12.3 · D+13.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.2%
Donald Trump (R)43.8%
2022
72,639 votes · D+9.8✓ Tom Sullivan (D)54.9%
Tom Kim (R)45.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
92,227 votes · D+10.6✓ Chris Kolker (D)55.3%
Suzanne Staiert (R)44.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
93,270 two-party votes · D+14.7 · D+10.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.4%
Donald Trump (R)42.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
82,658 votes · R+6.9✓ Jack Tate (R)53.4%
Tom Sullivan (D)46.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
70,638 two-party votes · D+3.4 · D+1.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.7%
Donald Trump (R)48.3%