Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Colorado › Colorado State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado State Senate District 30
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (74%).
Leung is favored to win: Leung wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Leung (D)
74%
chance of winning
Carson (R)
26%
- Average margin
- D+4.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (76%).
Leung is favored to win: Leung wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Leung (D)
76%
chance of winning
Carson (R)
24%
- Average margin
- D+6.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Kevin Leung
RepublicanIncumbent
John Carson
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Colorado state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.04 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.07 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 169,439
- People per km²
- 542
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 67%
- White, no degree
- 26%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 2%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
111,852 two-party votes · D+2.5 · D+4.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.2%
Donald Trump (R)48.8%
2022
86,873 votes · R+7.6✓ Kevin van Winkle (R)53.8%
Braeden Miguel (D)46.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
105,636 two-party votes · D+1.2 · R+3.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.6%
Donald Trump (R)49.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
83,262 votes · R+11.9✓ Chris Holbert (R)52.8%
Julia Varnell-Sarjeant (D)41.6%
Steve Peterson (I)5.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
82,896 two-party votes · R+11.3 · R+13.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.4%
2014 Earlier district lines
63,822 votes · R+29.8✓ Chris Holbert (R)62.5%
Bette Davis (D)33.8%
Eric Price (L)3.7%