Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto, so the majority party does not need a supermajority to pass bills over a veto.
Alabama › Alabama State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alabama State Senate District 25
Barfoot is very likely to win: Barfoot wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Foster (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Barfoot (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+26.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+17
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Barfoot is very likely to win: Barfoot wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Foster (D)
1%
chance of winning
Barfoot (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+24.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+12
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Phadra Carson Foster
RepublicanIncumbent
Will Barfoot
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Alabama state offices
- −0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.04 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -27.48 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -27.48 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 146,884
- People per km²
- 34
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 30%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
70,075 two-party votes · R+29.1 · R+27.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.6%
Kamala Harris (D)35.4%
2022
38,277 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Will Barfoot (R)85.3%
Louie Albert Woolbright (L)14.1%
Write-In (—)0.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
74,206 two-party votes · R+31.8 · R+36.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.9%
Joe Biden (D)34.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
53,923 votes · R+22.6✓ Will Barfoot (R)61.3%
David A Sadler (D)38.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
63,083 two-party votes · R+35.6 · R+37.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)32.2%
2014 Earlier district lines
29,545 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Brewbaker (R)100.0%