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West Virginia › West Virginia House of Delegates · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
West Virginia Delegate District 70
Howe is favored to win: Howe wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Welsh (D)
32%
chance of winning
Howe (R)
68%
- Average margin
- R+3.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Howe is clearly favored to win: Howe wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Welsh (D)
9%
chance of winning
Howe (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+13.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Shannon Welsh
Nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
Republican
Paul J. Howe III
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- West Virginia state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.17 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 11.08 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,556
- People per km²
- 347
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 65%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
6,241 votes · R+12.3✓ Mickey Petitto (R)56.2%
Shannon R Welsh (D)43.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,355 two-party votes · R+21.2 · R+19.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.6%
Kamala Harris (D)39.4%
2022
3,916 votes · R+7.7✓ Mickey Petitto (R)53.8%
Ryan Deems (D)46.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,757 two-party votes · R+19.7 · R+24.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.8%
Joe Biden (D)40.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,871 two-party votes · R+23.8 · R+26.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.1%