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West Virginia › West Virginia House of Delegates · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
West Virginia Delegate District 58
Hall is clearly favored to win: Hall wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Jackson (D)
12%
chance of winning
Hall (R)
88%
- Average margin
- R+9.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hall is clearly favored to win: Hall wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Jackson (D)
18%
chance of winning
Hall (R)
82%
- Average margin
- R+8.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Marisa Jackson
RepublicanIncumbent
Walter Hall
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- West Virginia state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.91 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 13,235
- People per km²
- 373
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 62%of adults
- White 80%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 9%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,842 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Walter Hall (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
7,607 two-party votes · R+15.7 · R+14.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.8%
Kamala Harris (D)42.2%
2022
4,776 votes · R+24.4✓ Walter Hall (R)62.2%
Dakota James Buckley (D)37.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
8,624 votes · R+52.0✓ George A Miller (R)76.0%
Tom Harden (D)24.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,681 two-party votes · R+16.1 · R+20.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.0%
Joe Biden (D)42.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
8,580 two-party votes · R+25.7 · R+28.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.1%