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West Virginia › West Virginia House of Delegates · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
West Virginia Delegate District 44
Roop is favored to win: Roop wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Baisden (D)
20%
chance of winning
Roop (R)
80%
- Average margin
- R+5.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Roop is clearly favored to win: Roop wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Baisden (D)
13%
chance of winning
Roop (R)
87%
- Average margin
- R+10.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Christina Baisden
RepublicanIncumbent
Bill Roop
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- West Virginia state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.54 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.01 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.01 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 14,932
- People per km²
- 562
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 74%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 15%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
6,799 votes · R+14.2✓ Carl Bill Roop (R)57.1%
Tony O Martin (D)42.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,876 two-party votes · R+18.5 · R+17.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.2%
Kamala Harris (D)40.8%
2022
4,450 votes · R+10.2✓ Todd A Kirby (R)55.1%
Tony O Martin (D)44.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,777 votes · R+27.8✓ Caleb Hanna (R)63.9%
Robin Cutlip (D)36.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
7,389 two-party votes · R+11.2 · R+15.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.6%
Joe Biden (D)44.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
6,569 two-party votes · R+18.0 · R+20.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.0%