Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; the odd-numbered districts are on the ballot in midterm years and the even-numbered ones in presidential years.
Wisconsin › Wisconsin State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin State Senate District 23
Quinn is very likely to win: Quinn wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Foster (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Quinn (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+28.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Quinn is very likely to win: Quinn wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Foster (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Quinn (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+31.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+44 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Jeff Foster
Republican
Romaine Quinn
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wisconsin state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.49 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 175,544
- People per km²
- 10
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 19%
- White, no degree
- 76%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
96,979 two-party votes · R+36.6 · R+35.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.3%
Kamala Harris (D)31.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
56,391 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jesse James (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
92,864 two-party votes · R+33.8 · R+38.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.9%
Joe Biden (D)33.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
72,595 votes · R+18.3✓ Kathy Bernier (R)59.2%
Chris Kapsner (D)40.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
80,168 two-party votes · R+32.6 · R+34.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.7%
2014 Earlier district lines
64,712 votes · R+22.3✓ Terry Moulton (R)61.2%
Phil Swanhorst (D)38.8%